A new logistic regression derived combined index for early prediction of in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients

BACKGROUND: While the type and the number of treatments for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) have substantially evolved since the start of the pandemic a significant number of hospitalized patients continue to succumb. This requires ongoing research in the development and improvement of early risk stratification tools. METHOD(S): We developed a prognostic score using epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and treatment variables collected on admission in 130 adult COVID-19 patients followed until in-hospital death (N.=38) or discharge (N.=92). Potential variables were selected via multivariable logistic regression modelling conducted using a logistic regression univariate analysis to create a combined index. RESULT(S): Age, Charlson Comorbidity Index, P/F ratio, prothrombin time, C-reactive protein and troponin were the selected variables. AUROC indicated that the model had an excellent AUC value (0.971, 95% CI 0.926 to 0.993) with 100% sensitivity and 83% specificity for in-hospital mortality. The Hosmer-Lemeshow calibration test yielded non-significant P values (chi2=1.79, P=0.99) indicates good calibration. CONCLUSION(S): This newly developed combined index could be useful to predict mortality of hospitalized COVID-19 patients on admission.Copyright © 2022 EDIZIONI MINERVA MEDICA.

Prothrombin time, international normalized rate and in-hospital mortality in COVID-19

BACKGROUND: Blood coagulation alterations are frequent in patients with Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), particularly in those with severe forms. We investigated the association between standard parameters of coagulation and in-hospital mortality in COVID-19. METHODS: Demographic, clinical and laboratory data at hospital admission, including prothrombin time (PT), international normalized rate (INR), activated thromboplastin time (aPTT), and D-dimer were retrospectively collected in a consecutive series of 309 COVID-19 hospitalized patients. The associations between parameters of coagulation and in-hospital mortality were investigated with receiver operating characteristics (ROC), multiple regression and Kaplan- Meyer analyses. RESULTS: In the overall population, 220 (71.2%) patients were discharged alive, whereas the remaining 89 (28.8%) died. Non-survivors had significantly higher INR (median: 1.20;IQR: 1.03-1.32 vs. 1.06;IQR: 1.02-1.11, P<0.001), PT (median: 12.0 sec;IQR: 11.1-14.0 vs. 11.4 sec;IQR: 11.0-11.9, P<0.001), aPTT (median: 25.1 sec;IQR: 22.7-29.6 vs. 23.4 sec;IQR: 21.4-25.1, P<0.001) and D-dimer (median: 1.36 μg/mL;IQR: 0.87-4.11 vs. 0.77 μg/mL;IQR: 0.43-1.58, P<0.001). In multivariate Cox regression analysis, both the INR (HR=1.8459;95% CI: 1.0713-3.1806, P=0.027) and PT (HR=1.071;95% CI: 1.0132-1.1303, P=0.015), but not the aPTT and D-dimer, remained independently associated with survival. CONCLUSIONS: Both the PTand INRare independently associated with in-hospital mortality in COVID-19. The clinical utility of these parameters for risk stratification warrants further investigations.

A meta-regression study of the clinical significance of serum aminotransferases in COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to appraise the capacity of serum aminotransferases to discriminate between hepatic and other extra-pulmonary COVID-19-related manifestations and, potentially, to serve as predictors of poor clinical outcomes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Ninety-eight studies were identified (79% from China), including 43,554 patients (57% males), 9,983 (62% males) with poor outcomes and 33,571 (50% males) with favorable outcomes. After splitting studies depending on whether serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) concentrations were statistically different between patients with poor vs. favorable outcomes, the 35 'hepatic involvement' articles (p<0.05) included 28,510 patients (51% males), 5,279 (66% males) and 23,231 subjects (48% males) with poor and favorable outcomes, respectively. The 63 'extra-hepatic involvement' studies (p>0.05) included 15,044 patients (54% males), 4,704 (60% males) with poor outcomes and 10,340 (51% males) with favorable outcomes. RESULTS: The meta-analysis shows that serum aspartate aminotransferase (AST) concentrations were significantly higher in patients with poor outcomes than those with favorable outcomes (WMD 12.5 UI/L, 95% CI 10.9 to 14.1 p<0.001). Similarly, AST concentrations were significantly higher in the 'hepatic involvement' studies (WMD 16.3 UI/L, 95% CI 13.4 to 19.2 p<0.001) and in the 'extra-hepatic involvement' studies (WMD 10.3 UI/L, 95% CI 8.6 to 12.0 p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The different association of serum AST concentrations with some clinical, demographic, and biochemical factors in the two clusters suggests that in COVID-19 patients, serum AST elevation is not necessarily linked to real liver damage.

The Systemic Inflammation Index on admission is independently associated with length of stay in hospitalized COVID-19 patients

BACKGROUND: The early detection of factors predicting hospital length of stay (LOS) in patients affected by severe acute respiratory syndrome in Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) disease (COVID-19) might facilitate therapeutic decisions and patient flow management. METHODS: We collected routine clinical and laboratory parameters and derived inflammatory indexes on admission in 65 consecutive COVID-19 patients transferred to the Unit of Respiratory and Infectious Disease of the University Hospital of Sassari (North-Sardinia, Italy) who were alive on discharge. RESULTS: Patients with prolonged length of stay (LOS) (PLOS >= 26 days, N.=22) had significantly higher chest CT severity scores, neutrophils, neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR), aggregate index of systemic inflammation, Systemic Inflammation Response Index, Systemic Inflammation Index (SII), aspartate aminotransferase, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and rates of obesity and respiratory support, than non-PLOS patients (N.=43). In univariate analysis, LOS was significantly and negatively correlated with lymphocytes and monocytes, and positively correlated with Body Mass Index (BMI), intensity of care, chest CT severity score, NLR, platelet lymphocyte ratio, SII and LDH. In multivariate regression analysis, only the SII was significantly associated with LOS (beta=0.506, P=0.002) after adjusting for BMI, intensity of care, chest CT severity score and LDH. CONCLUSIONS: SII values on admission were independently associated with LOS in COVID-19 patients. Prospective studies in larger cohorts are required to confirm our findings and to determine the role of the SII in clinical decision making.

Systemic inflammatory markers and psychophysical olfactory scores in coronavirus disease 2019 patients: is there any correlation?

OBJECTIVE: To analyse the correlations between olfactory psychophysical scores and the serum levels of D-dimer, C-reactive protein, ferritin, lactate dehydrogenase, procalcitonin and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in coronavirus disease 2019 patients. METHODS: Patients underwent psychophysical olfactory assessment with the Connecticut Chemosensory Clinical Research Center test, and determination of blood serum levels of the inflammatory markers D-dimer, C-reactive protein, ferritin, lactate dehydrogenase, procalcitonin and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio within 10 days of the clinical onset of coronavirus disease 2019 and 60 days after. RESULTS: Seventy-seven patients were included in this study. D-dimer, procalcitonin, ferritin and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio correlated significantly with severe coronavirus disease 2019. No significant correlations were found between baseline and 60-day Connecticut Chemosensory Clinical Research Center test scores and the inflammatory markers assessed. CONCLUSION: Olfactory disturbances appear to have little prognostic value in predicting the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 compared to D-dimer, ferritin, procalcitonin and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio. The lack of correlation between the severity and duration of olfactory disturbances and serum levels of inflammatory markers seems to further suggest that the pathogenetic mechanisms underlying the loss of smell in coronavirus disease 2019 patients are related to local rather than systemic inflammatory factors.

Does Angiotensin II receptor blockers increase the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection? A real-life experience.

OBJECTIVE: Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, millions of people have been infected with thousands of deaths. Few data regarding factors that increase the risk of infection are available. Our study aimed to evaluate all people living in retirement homes (PLRNH) and identify factors that could increase infection risk in a close community. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study enrolling all PLRNH, where at least one SARS-CoV-2 infected person was present. Variables were compared with Student's t-test or Pearson chi-square test as appropriate. Uni- and multivariate analyses were conducted to evaluate variables' influence on the infection. RESULTS: We included 452 PLRNH; 144 (31.7%) were male, with a mean age of 82.2±8.6 years. People with a positive swab for SARS-CoV-2 were 306 (67.4%). A significant difference between SARS-CoV-2 infected and not infected was observed in the percentage of those receiving chronic treatment with Angiotensin II receptor blockers (ARBs) (18.6% vs. 9.5%, p=0.012). On the contrary, there was no difference in the proportion of those receiving ACE inhibitors (ACE-I) (21.2% vs. 23.6%, p=0.562). At multivariate analysis, people with mental illness and cancer had an increased risk of being infected. Furthermore, receiving ARBs as a chronic treatment was an independent predictor of infection risk [OR 1.95 (95% CI 1.03-3.72) p=0.041]. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that, in close communities, such as retirement nursing homes, the receipt of ARBs increased the risk of acquiring SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, before changing an important chronic treatment in a fragile population, such as the elderly living in retirement nursing homes, clinicians should carefully evaluate the risk-benefit ratio.

Routine laboratory tests alterations in relation with the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Introduction. Coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) is the greatest pandemic in modern history. The aim of this study was to investigate the alteration and prognostic potential of routine blood tests in a series of consecutive Italian patients with COVID-19. Methods. Clinical data and routine laboratory tests of a consecutive series of 62 COVID-19 patients treated in the Units of Infectious and Respiratory Diseases of the University of Sassari from 15 March through 30 April 2020, have been retrospectively collected. Differences in laboratory tests performed at hospital admission between COVID-19 survivors and non survivors were statistically searched and analyzed. Results. Patients in non-survivors group had higher number of WBCs (median: 9.16 x109L;IQR: 6.29-13.07 x109L vs 6.37 x109L;IQR: 4.95-9.04 x109L, p=0.037), neutrophils (mean: 9.2±6.0 x109L vs 5.4±2.7 x109L, p=0.001), and lower lymphocytes number (median: 0.6 x109L;IQR: 0.6-0.85 x109L vs 1.0 x109L;IQR: 0.7-1.2 x109L, p=0.013). In addition, non-survivors showed lower albumin (median: 3.2 g/dL;IQR: 2.9-3.4 g/dL vs 3.5 g/dL;IQR: 3.0-3.9 g/dL, p=0.035), and increased PCR/albumin ratio (median: 3.65;IQR: 2.17-6.86 vs 1.56;IQR: 0.64-4.36, p=0.035) and De Ritis ratio (median: 1.14;IQR: 0.89-1.48 vs 1.73;IQR: 1.29-2.27, p=0.002). Increased levels of LDH (median: 359 IU/L;IQR: 259-504 vs 273 IU/L;IQR: 197-356 IU/L, p=0.017), procalcitonin (median: 0.28 ng/mL;IQR: 0.19-0.52 ng/mL vs 0.07 ng/mL;IQR: 0.03-0.17 ng/mL, p=0.0006) and troponin (median: 0.181 ng/mL;IQR: 0.068-0.193 ng/mL vs 0.004 ng/mL;IQR: 0.000-0.017 ng/mL, p=0.002) has been found in nonsurvivors. In ROC curve analysis the better performing indexes were troponin, with a threshold of 0.037 ng/mL, 86% sensitivity and 100% specificity (AUC=0.908, 95% CI 0.701 to 0.989, p<0.001) and procalcitonin with a threshold of 0.18 ng/mL, 79% sensitivity and 79% specificity (AUC=0.807, 95% CI 0.681 to 0.900, p<0.001). Conclusions. Differences in routine laboratory test alterations between COVID-19 survivors and nonsurvivors have been detected;troponin and procalcitonin were the biomarkers which showed the highest prognostic abilities in our study.